Monday, February 17, 2020

Finn Wolfhard - FWOLF (Short) - HSX Pick of the Day for February 17, 2020

Finn Wolfhard is best known for his work on "Stranger Things," but his movie dance card has been jam-packed, appearing in three films in 2019, with two in 2020 and one in 2021. Volume is the most valuable asset for a StarBond on the Hollywood Stock Exchange, so it's always worth watching a stock like this. Sure enough, FWOLF offers big opportunity, both in the short term as well as the medium and long terms.

On Wednesday, February 19th, FWOLF will adjust to reflect the box office from The Turning, knocking the horror smash It out of TAG range. It earned more than $327 million, so it falling out of TAG range for FWOLF would drop his stock $50 per share. The Turning has currently grossed $15,141,565. If you build in some padding and place it at $16,000,000, that's $3.20 per share increase, meaning FWOLF will land $46.80 per share lower than it's current TAG of $114,144,985. This means FWOLF will adjust to roughly $67.32 on Wednesday, meaning that if you short the stock, you will earn $17.70 per share guaranteed, a profit of 20.8%.

Beyond the immediate windfall, FWOLF offers some area for profit that, while not guaranteed, is highly likely and worthy of your investment. FWOLF's next film to fall out of TAG range is Dog Days, which grossed $6,807,030, and will be replaced by the new Ghostbusters movie in July. It's inconceivable to imagine it won't gross north of $6,807,030, and at the current price of $147.47, it will likely gross far, far more.

Recommendation: Immediately short as many shares of FWOLF as you can afford, and then quickly cover the short on Wednesday once the stock adjusts. After adjust, buy as many shares as you can and watch the stock quickly climb in value.

Friday, February 7, 2020

Frozen II - FROZ2.BW - Blockbuster Warrant

Frozen II has been another runaway box office success for Disney, grossing $472,819,959 and counting. HSX predicted big things for the film, setting the Blockbuster Warrant at a high $370,000,000, but clearly the film has toppled that number with ease. At the current price, you would expect the warrant to trade at roughly $102, since that is the guaranteed payout. Yet FROZ2.BW is currently trading at $20.66, more than $80 below value. That means if you buy the max number of shares, you'll walk away with more than $1.626 million in just a few weeks.


Recommendation: No matter the size of your portfolio, buy as many shares as you can and hold them until they cash out for a quick, big boost to your portfolio.

Knives Out - $100M Blockbuster Warrant - HSX Pick of the Day for February 7, 2020

Rian Johnson's Knives Out has been a runaway hit, earning an Oscar nomination, major box office, and an upcoming sequel. As of February 7, 2020, the film has earned $156,359,119 in domestic box office.


Last month, HSX issued a derivative allowing HSX investors to invest in the film's long-term box office success. The threshold for the derivative was set at $100M, meaning that for every $1M grossed beyond that, the derivative would increase in share $1M. Given the current box office haul for Knives Out, the derivative should be trading at a minimum of $56.35, as this is the minimum value of the derivative once it prices out even if the film doesn't make another dollar (unlikely since the film is still grossing a couple of hundred thousand dollars per day). Yet the derivative is currently trading at $17.11, a guaranteed $39.24 below value.


This means that if you buy the maximum 20,000 shares of the stock, you are guaranteed at least $784,800 when the derivative cashes out in two weeks with absolutely no risk.


Recommendation: This is a no-brainer for any size portfolio, as your stock will more than triple in value in just two weeks.

Monday, December 12, 2016

TVStocks - ABC's Designated Survivor

ABC has been very pleased with the ratings for the Kiefer Sutherland vehicle Designated Survivor, ordering a full 22 episode season not long after it debuted.  While ratings have dipped a bit since, they still remain strong, and there's no reason to think the show will not be renewed.  With 22 episodes ordered, there's little reason to justify the stock's current price of $19.61, as it should adjust to $22 on May 31, 2017, a 12.2% increase in 5.5 months, approximately 25% annually.

Designated Survivor could suddenly tank in the ratings, but there's almost nothing to suggest that DESURV won't adjust to $22 at the end of May.

Recommendation: If you have a small portfolio and need to invest in big, quick gains, DESURV isn't the stock for you.  But if you have plenty of investible funds and need somewhere to invest, DESURV offers a nice pickup for you.

Jemaine Clement - HSX Pick of the Day for December 12, 2016

Jemaine Clement, star of Flight of the Conchords, provides the voice of Tamatoa in Walt Disney's Moana, a film that has topped the box office in each of its first three weeks of release, earning $144.7 million through Sunday, December 11th.  Assuming a very conservative $10 million in gross in its fourth week, the film would adjust to $155 million.  Moana will replace What We Do In The Shadows  in Jemaine Clement's TAG, a film that grossed just $3,276,317.  As a result, JCLEM will adjust up by a minimum of $30.34, putting his price at $42.11, up from his current price of $26.59.

Even if Moana were to somehow make no additional money over its current $144.7 million, JCLEM would still adjust to $40.05, a big profit over his current value.

Recommendation: Buy JCLEM long.  After MOANA adjusts on December 20th, you would be wise to dump your stock in JCLEM.  While his next film to drop from TAG range, Misery Loves Comedy, grossed just $5,260, it looks to be awhile until Clement appears in his next film, which will likely cause the stock to drop until the release date of his next effort approaches.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Julie Walters - HSX Pick of the Day for December 17, 2015

It's been more than four years since the final film in the Harry Potter franchise was released, but for the savvy investor, Harry and his friends still offer great opportunities for easy and guaranteed money on the HSX market.

Julie Walters (JWALT) appeared as Molly Weasley in the Harry Potter Series, and since the release of the last film has popped up in just four additional credits, most recently this year's Brooklyn.  Brooklyn will de-list for somewhere between $15 and $18 million on December 22nd, and will enter JWALT's TAG range and push Gnomeo and Juliet out of TAG range.  Gnomes and Juliet grossed $99,908,609, so even if we assume that Brooklyn tops out at $18 million, that's a difference of $81,908,609, or $16.38 in TAG value, dropping her TAG from $132.67 to roughly $116.29.  JWALT is currently trading at $130.84, offering a gain of $14.55 (11%) per share in just one week to anyone savvy enough to short stock in JWALT.

As if that wasn't attractive enough, more profits are almost certainly on the horizon.  The next film to fall out of TAG range is the final Harry Potter film, which grossed more than $381 million.  While the Hollywood Stock Exchange does not list her next film (she has been busy shooting Indian Summers), assuming that Ms. Walters appears on screen again, her next film will almost certainly drop the value of JWALT dramatically as Harry Potter is pushed out of TAG range.  The worst case scenario for an investor is that her next film grosses north of $250 million, which would keep her stock at exactly it's post-December 22nd price.  Even if her next film was enormously successful and grossed $150 million, that would cause a drop in value of $30 per share, a gain to short sellers of roughly 26%.  It might take awhile to collect, but with such a significant potential gain, investing in JWALT is a no brainer.

One more note: JWALT's next film to fall out of TAG range after Harry Potter is Brave, which brought home more than $237 million for Disney.  Short selling JWALT will almost certainly offer big money for a long time to come.

RECOMMENDATION: Short as many shares of JWALT as you can afford, and hold onto them for a long time.

Monday, June 9, 2014

6/10/2014 Pick - Marion Cotillard

Marion Cotillard (MCOTI) offers a great Hollywood Stock Exchange short opportunity.  Marion Cotillard will adjust today, and her TAG will gain Blood Ties and lose Midnight in Paris.  Blood Ties has earned less than a million dollars, while Midnight in Paris earned $56.82 million, meaning her TAG will fall over $11.00 per share from a current value of $64.47 to around $54 million.  It's too late to get in on this drop, as the stock is frozen, but there's still time to make HSX money by shorting Marion Cotillard.

In 8 weeks, Marion Cotillard will adjust again to account for The Immigrant, dropping Contagion in the process.  The Immigrant currently has grossed at $1,421,859.  Even if it were to gross $5 million, which is unlikely, Contagion grossed $75,638,743, meaning MCOTI would drop approximately $14 a share, to around $40, offering a gain of over $24.

If that's not enough for you and you're willing to hold onto MCOTI even longer, the next movie to drop from TAG range will be The Dark Knight Rises, which grossed almost $450 million.  This offers zero risk, since even if Cotillard's next film were to become the highest grossing film in film history, the stock would maintain its post The Immigrant price due to TAG rules.  Even if the film is successful, this could offer huge opportunities.

As soon as MCOTI is unfrozen, make sure to short sell as many shares of Marion Cotillard as you can afford.  It can offer a good short-term or great long-term profit.

Sunday, June 8, 2014

6/8/2014 Pick - Tye Sheridan (TSHER)

Tye Sheridan has only been in a few movies, and so far his stock price is due almost entirely to the grosses of Tree of Life and Mud.  The two films together earned $34.89 million.  His third film on the exchange, David Gordon Green's Joe, just adjusted, and its small gross raised Tye Sheridan's TAG to $11,630,875.  His stock quickly fell, and is currently trading at $7.59.  After his next film is released, which is set to be Scouts vs. Zombies on March 13, 2015, Tye Sheridan will adjust to a minimum of $8.72, a gain of $1.13 or 14.9%.  For those just starting out, this isn't a big enough gain to justify locking up funds for nine months, but for those with plenty of cash to invest, Tye Sheridan offers a nice guaranteed gain and the potential for more.  Scouts vs. Zombies currently trades at $36.97; if the market is correct, Tye Sheridan's stock would jump to $17.97, more than doubling in value.  Tye Sheridan is a good buy for those with big portfolios and cash to invest.

Friday, October 19, 2012

10/19/2012 Picks

Chris Messina - CMESS

Chris Messina has had a full dance card lately, with six films released in 2012 and his work on HBO's The Newsroom.  Busy actors are the best f or HSX investing, especially those who make both large and small films, creating big fluctuations in TAG value.

CMESS is currently trading at $2.04 over a TAG of $1,189,702.  Next Tuesday (October 23rd), CMESS will adjust for Celeste and Jesse Forever, which grossed $3,077,622.  This will knock Monogamy and its $20,202 out of TAG range, which will adjust CMESS to $1.80.

So why is CMESS a must-buy if the stock will drop from $2.04 to $1.80 next Tuesday?  Yes, it is a loss of 24 cents (though this can be eliminated by placing a limit order), but CMESS will almost immediately take a big jump.  The next film to enter TAG range for CMESS is Argo, which has already grossed $26,568,000, and the next film leaving TAG range is Like Crazy, which grossed $3,388,210.  This means that CMESS will jump a guaranteed $4.64, pushing the stock to $6.44, more than three times the stock's current value.

This stock is even more attractive since Argo will likely gross quite a bit more money based on strong reviews and positive audience response.  CMESS could easily climb somewhere in the range of $5-10 beyond the guaranteed $4.64, making this an easy gain that will pay off in less than a month.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Easy Money with TV Stocks

After a dismal run at NBC in recent years, the network was excited to announce that it is ordering additional episodes of three new shows: Go On, The New Normal, and Revolution.  This is good news for fans of these shows, but also great news for savvy HSX traders.

HSX TVStocks allow investors to bet on how many episodes of a new show will air during the 2012-2013 TV season.  The stocks will pay out $1 per episode after the last episode of the season has aired.  If you bought the stocks of any of these shows at their IPO price, you will have made a nice profit.  But these stocks are still trading at artificially low prices, offering a chance to get in late and still make money at almost no risk.  

Please note that it is still possible that any of these three shows could experience a ratings collapse that could lead to these episodes not being aired.  However, these shows are all doing well, and it is extremely unlikely that these episodes won't air.  The tiny risk that the fortunes of these shows can change is far outweighed by the near guarantee of making money on these stocks.

Go On (GOONBC) is currently trading at $18.75.  With 22 episodes ordered, this stock is $3.25 below its value, offering a 17.3% gain.  17.3% over approximately seven months is a solid gain, and well above what interest would pay on cash.  If you have a small portal and are tight on cash, there are more profitable investment options available.  If you have a large portal with an excess of cash, GOONBC is a great place to park some money for awhile.  

Revolution (RVOLUT) offers less attractive margins than GOONBC, but is still worth buying for those with large portfolios.  It is currently priced at $19.46 per share, $2.54 below its expected value.  Once again, this stock probably isn't a good choice for small portfolios, but the payout is well above HSX interest levels.

The best margin available is for The New Normal (NWNRML), priced at $16.67, $5.33 below value.  This translates to a gain of 32.0% over approximately seven months.  This is a no-brainer for large portfolios, but is worth considering for medium-sized portfolios as well.  Strong traders can make more than this in seven months, but for less active traders, it is well worth considering parking funds in NWNRML and collecting a tidy profit next spring.

10/4/12 Picks

Dermot Mulroney - DMULR

Dermot Mulroney's newest film Trade of Innocents, which will be released this weekend, is not expected to make much money at the box office (it is currently trading at $1.19 per share, down from $2.18 earlier this week).  Yet because DMULR is trading at an artificially low price, there is an opportunity to make a quick gain by buying DMULR.

DMULR is currently trading at $17.89 per share, with a TAG of $21,791,512.  When the stock adjusts 12 weeks after this Friday's release of Trade of Innocents, the 2011 film Love, Wedding, Marriage will fall out of TAG range, bringing its anemic $1,378.00 in box office grosses with it.  This means that even without any grosses from Trade of Innocents added in, DMULR will adjust to $21.79, a gain of $3.90 per share (21.85%) in only 12 weeks.

Once DMULR adjusts in 12 weeks, you can sell off the stock and take a nice little gain.  If you're willing to hold onto the stock awhile longer, more profits almost certainly lie ahead, though not guaranteed as with the first part of this recommendation. In March, 2013, the film Stoker will be released, currently trading at $16.89.  This will push The Family Tree out of TAG range, knocking only $3,658 off of the value of DMULR.  If Stoker grosses what HSX traders currently predict, this would push DMULR up an additional $3.37 per share over two months.



Wednesday, October 3, 2012

10/3/12 Picks

David Thewlis - DTHEW

David Thewlis's next film is Red 2, an action-film sequel currently trading at $57.59, thus making him an unlikely target for a short order.  When one considers that the next film to fall out of TAG range is Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1, shorting DTHEW becomes a no brainer.

DTHEW is currently trading at $117.10 over a TAG of $116,871,427.  Even if Red 2 somehow made more than $250 million, more than 2.5 times what the original Red made, DTHEW would still fall to $116.87, meaning a gain of $0.23 per share on a short, just a fraction of one percent and not worth the commission fee.  But if Red 2 falls short of $250 million, which it will almost certainly do, shorting DTHEW becomes much more attractive.  For example, if Red 2 repeated the $90,356,857 gross of its predecessor, DTHEW would fall $31.93 per share (27.3%).  Even if Red 2 doubles its predecessor's gross, DTHEW would still fall approximately $13.86 per share (11.8%).

DTHEW is made even more attractive when one considers that the next film to fall out of TAG range after Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 is Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2.  It's not yet known which will be the next film starring David Thewlis, but since Deathy Hallows 2 made over the maximum TAG adjust of $250 million, DTHEW is guaranteed not to gain in price, no matter how successful the next film.  And since it is unlikely that any film will gross at least $250 million, DTHEW should fall even further.

If you have stock in DTHEW, sell it.  Then short as many shares as you can afford.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

9/26/12 Picks

Charlize Theron - CTHER

As a result of the successful Prometheus pushing CTHER up in value, there was a large sell-off of the stock, leaving it at a price of $52.16, well below the TAG of $65,107,260.  The next film to fall out of TAG range for CTHER is Astro Boy, which grossed $19,548,064.  When ASBOY falls out of TAG range, CTHER will adjust to $61.20, a gain of $8.04 (15.41%) over the current value.

This is a nice attractive guaranteed gain, and there is the potential for a much larger gain.  Theron is starring in  Mad Max: Fury Road, which has the potential for a nice box-office profit.  The film's stock (MMAX4) is currently trading at $67.72.  If the film ends up being valued at this price, CTHER would climb an additional $13.54 over the guaranteed gain of $8.04, for a total gain of $21.58 per share (41.4%).

Monday, September 24, 2012

9/24/12 Picks

Kate Beckinsale - KBECK

It will take a little patience to make money off of KBECK, but there's a guaranteed profit at the end of the wait.  KBECK is currently trading at $33.22, well below the TAG of $41,201,916.  The next film to drop out of TAG range is Whiteout (2009), which will adjust her price to $39.15, a $5.93 per share, or 17.85%.

No release date has been set for Beckinsale's next film, The Trials of Cate McCall, though IMDB lists it for a 2013 release.  Even if the film is released in limited release and makes little profit, KBECK is still well worth investing in.  If the film performs as well as HSX investors believe it will - TTOCM currently is trading at $14.78, KBECK would get pushed near the $42 range.

Beckinsale doesn't have any other films on the horizon, so the only risk associated with the stock is if TTOCM does not receive a theatrical release.  Still, Beckinsale is a hard working actress, and appeared in eight HSX films between 2007 and the present.  Even if TTOCM doesn't come through and investors have to hold KBECK a bit longer, the 17.85% guarantee is too attractive to ignore for anyone with a portfolio of a decent size.

Friday, September 21, 2012

9/21/2012 Picks

Julianna Marguiles - JMARG

JMARG currently is selling for a price of $11.78 per share, below a TAG of $14,712,879.  The next film to leave TAG range is the 2002 George Hickenlooper film The Man From Elysian Fields, which grossed only $1,431,625.  This means that when her next film comes out (currently slated for January, 2013), JMARG will adjust to a guaranteed minimum of $14.43, a gain of 22.5% over its current value in only four months.

What makes this stock especially attractive is that her upcoming film, Stand Up Guys, has the potential to make a little money, raising JMARG even further.  The film co-stars Al Pacino and Christopher Walken as a pair of hit men, almost ensuring at least a modest performance at the box office.  The film's stock (STUPG) currently trades at $19.28).  If the film were to gross $19.28 million, as the HSX market is currently predicting, JMARG's stock would reach $18.29, a 55.3% gain.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

2/10/11 Picks

Maya Rudolph - MRUDO

MRUDO is priced at only $70.53, despite a TAG of $86,066,364. The next film to leave TAG range is the Mike Judge film Idiocracy, which grossed only $438,653. Once Idiodcracy leaves TAG range, MRUDO will adjust to a minimum of $85.98, a gain of $15.42 per share (21.9%). If Bridesmaids, Maya Rudolph's film, does as well as many of the other films produced by Judd Apatow have done, MRUDO could climb even higher. Just make sure to sell MRUDO as soon as it adjusts for Bridesmaids, because the stock will likely crash since the next film to leave TAG range will be Shrek the Third. But in the meantime, a guaranteed 21.9% gain, with the potential for much higher, in only 4 months should not be ignored.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

2/8/11 Picks

Robin Williams - RWILL

It's just over nine months until Happy Feet 2 will be released, the sequel to the film that earned a hair under $200 million. Four weeks after the film is released and RWILL adjusts (in December, 2011), RWILL will adjust to a minimum of $45.43, a gain of $8.84 per share over its current price of $36.59. This is a guaranteed gain of 24% in 10 months, a solid if not spectacular gain (at least by HSX standards). However, if Happy Feet 2 grosses even 25% what its predecessor earned, RWILL would grow by over $18 per share. RWILL will earn you a respectable return, guaranteed, with the possibility of a much more significant profit.

Friday, December 3, 2010

12/3/10 Picks

Brian Cox - BCOX

BCOX will be appearing in the Planet of the Apes reboot Rise of the Apes, pushing Red (2008) out of TAG range. Red grossed only $3,176, meaning BCOX's TAG will be $17.56, while his price is only $14.78, meaning a guaranteed gain of $0.78 per share. Not too significant, except for the fact that Rise of the Apes has high expectations in the box office. The film is currently trading at $109.11 on HSX. If the film were to hit $100 million, BCOX would adjust to $37.56 per share, a gain of $22.78 per share. But even if the film is a flop, you will have a guaranteed gain with BCOX in just about half a year.

Friday, November 19, 2010

11/19/10 Picks

John Hurt - JHURT

I'm going to break the cardinal rule of this blog. I have always offered HSX stock tips that are 100% guaranteed, with no chance at failure. This pick is not 100% guaranteed, but it is too good of an opporunity to ignore, so I feel the need to share it. JHURT has done a number of small films recently, after appearing in the most recent Indiana Jones installment and the Hellboy sequel. However, his next two roles will be in the final Harry Potter films, and there has been no film series more certain to win big HSX bucks than Harry Potter. JHURT is currently trading at $13.28, with a TAG of $437,115. This means that Harry Potter needs to make only approximately $65 million in order to break even. Since the last Harry Potter film topped $300 million, this is definitely worth the bet. If the newest Potter film crossed the $250 million max threshold for Starbonds, JHURT will reach $50.44, a gain of $37.16 per share, nearly three times the current value of JHURT. And with another Potter film on the way early next year, JHURT will likely gain over $80 per share in less than a year. This one is a must buy, even though it's not a sure thing.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

11/03/10 Picks

Walter Salles - WSALL

Once again, a director offers a great chance for a guaranteed windfall. WSALL's last HSX credit was in 2007, and thus his price has fallen to $4.27, despite having a TAG of $10,549,271. He is currently working on an adaption of the Jack Kerouac classic On the Road, and when the film debuts it will knock Central Station out of TAG range. This will push WSALL to a minimum of $9.43, a gain of $5.16 per share, more than doubling in value with zero risk. It may take awhile, but one can max out on WSALL for only $85,400, and walk away with a guaranteed minimum of $188,600, with the room for much more if the film is successful.