Chris Messina - CMESS
Chris Messina has had a full dance card lately, with six films released in 2012 and his work on HBO's The Newsroom. Busy actors are the best f or HSX investing, especially those who make both large and small films, creating big fluctuations in TAG value.
CMESS is currently trading at $2.04 over a TAG of $1,189,702. Next Tuesday (October 23rd), CMESS will adjust for Celeste and Jesse Forever, which grossed $3,077,622. This will knock Monogamy and its $20,202 out of TAG range, which will adjust CMESS to $1.80.
So why is CMESS a must-buy if the stock will drop from $2.04 to $1.80 next Tuesday? Yes, it is a loss of 24 cents (though this can be eliminated by placing a limit order), but CMESS will almost immediately take a big jump. The next film to enter TAG range for CMESS is Argo, which has already grossed $26,568,000, and the next film leaving TAG range is Like Crazy, which grossed $3,388,210. This means that CMESS will jump a guaranteed $4.64, pushing the stock to $6.44, more than three times the stock's current value.
This stock is even more attractive since Argo will likely gross quite a bit more money based on strong reviews and positive audience response. CMESS could easily climb somewhere in the range of $5-10 beyond the guaranteed $4.64, making this an easy gain that will pay off in less than a month.
Friday, October 19, 2012
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Easy Money with TV Stocks
After a dismal run at NBC in recent years, the network was excited to announce that it is ordering additional episodes of three new shows: Go On, The New Normal, and Revolution. This is good news for fans of these shows, but also great news for savvy HSX traders.
HSX TVStocks allow investors to bet on how many episodes of a new show will air during the 2012-2013 TV season. The stocks will pay out $1 per episode after the last episode of the season has aired. If you bought the stocks of any of these shows at their IPO price, you will have made a nice profit. But these stocks are still trading at artificially low prices, offering a chance to get in late and still make money at almost no risk.
Please note that it is still possible that any of these three shows could experience a ratings collapse that could lead to these episodes not being aired. However, these shows are all doing well, and it is extremely unlikely that these episodes won't air. The tiny risk that the fortunes of these shows can change is far outweighed by the near guarantee of making money on these stocks.
Go On (GOONBC) is currently trading at $18.75. With 22 episodes ordered, this stock is $3.25 below its value, offering a 17.3% gain. 17.3% over approximately seven months is a solid gain, and well above what interest would pay on cash. If you have a small portal and are tight on cash, there are more profitable investment options available. If you have a large portal with an excess of cash, GOONBC is a great place to park some money for awhile.
Revolution (RVOLUT) offers less attractive margins than GOONBC, but is still worth buying for those with large portfolios. It is currently priced at $19.46 per share, $2.54 below its expected value. Once again, this stock probably isn't a good choice for small portfolios, but the payout is well above HSX interest levels.
The best margin available is for The New Normal (NWNRML), priced at $16.67, $5.33 below value. This translates to a gain of 32.0% over approximately seven months. This is a no-brainer for large portfolios, but is worth considering for medium-sized portfolios as well. Strong traders can make more than this in seven months, but for less active traders, it is well worth considering parking funds in NWNRML and collecting a tidy profit next spring.
10/4/12 Picks
Dermot Mulroney - DMULR
Dermot Mulroney's newest film Trade of Innocents, which will be released this weekend, is not expected to make much money at the box office (it is currently trading at $1.19 per share, down from $2.18 earlier this week). Yet because DMULR is trading at an artificially low price, there is an opportunity to make a quick gain by buying DMULR.
DMULR is currently trading at $17.89 per share, with a TAG of $21,791,512. When the stock adjusts 12 weeks after this Friday's release of Trade of Innocents, the 2011 film Love, Wedding, Marriage will fall out of TAG range, bringing its anemic $1,378.00 in box office grosses with it. This means that even without any grosses from Trade of Innocents added in, DMULR will adjust to $21.79, a gain of $3.90 per share (21.85%) in only 12 weeks.
Once DMULR adjusts in 12 weeks, you can sell off the stock and take a nice little gain. If you're willing to hold onto the stock awhile longer, more profits almost certainly lie ahead, though not guaranteed as with the first part of this recommendation. In March, 2013, the film Stoker will be released, currently trading at $16.89. This will push The Family Tree out of TAG range, knocking only $3,658 off of the value of DMULR. If Stoker grosses what HSX traders currently predict, this would push DMULR up an additional $3.37 per share over two months.
Dermot Mulroney's newest film Trade of Innocents, which will be released this weekend, is not expected to make much money at the box office (it is currently trading at $1.19 per share, down from $2.18 earlier this week). Yet because DMULR is trading at an artificially low price, there is an opportunity to make a quick gain by buying DMULR.
DMULR is currently trading at $17.89 per share, with a TAG of $21,791,512. When the stock adjusts 12 weeks after this Friday's release of Trade of Innocents, the 2011 film Love, Wedding, Marriage will fall out of TAG range, bringing its anemic $1,378.00 in box office grosses with it. This means that even without any grosses from Trade of Innocents added in, DMULR will adjust to $21.79, a gain of $3.90 per share (21.85%) in only 12 weeks.
Once DMULR adjusts in 12 weeks, you can sell off the stock and take a nice little gain. If you're willing to hold onto the stock awhile longer, more profits almost certainly lie ahead, though not guaranteed as with the first part of this recommendation. In March, 2013, the film Stoker will be released, currently trading at $16.89. This will push The Family Tree out of TAG range, knocking only $3,658 off of the value of DMULR. If Stoker grosses what HSX traders currently predict, this would push DMULR up an additional $3.37 per share over two months.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
10/3/12 Picks
David Thewlis - DTHEW
David Thewlis's next film is Red 2, an action-film sequel currently trading at $57.59, thus making him an unlikely target for a short order. When one considers that the next film to fall out of TAG range is Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1, shorting DTHEW becomes a no brainer.
DTHEW is currently trading at $117.10 over a TAG of $116,871,427. Even if Red 2 somehow made more than $250 million, more than 2.5 times what the original Red made, DTHEW would still fall to $116.87, meaning a gain of $0.23 per share on a short, just a fraction of one percent and not worth the commission fee. But if Red 2 falls short of $250 million, which it will almost certainly do, shorting DTHEW becomes much more attractive. For example, if Red 2 repeated the $90,356,857 gross of its predecessor, DTHEW would fall $31.93 per share (27.3%). Even if Red 2 doubles its predecessor's gross, DTHEW would still fall approximately $13.86 per share (11.8%).
DTHEW is made even more attractive when one considers that the next film to fall out of TAG range after Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 is Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2. It's not yet known which will be the next film starring David Thewlis, but since Deathy Hallows 2 made over the maximum TAG adjust of $250 million, DTHEW is guaranteed not to gain in price, no matter how successful the next film. And since it is unlikely that any film will gross at least $250 million, DTHEW should fall even further.
If you have stock in DTHEW, sell it. Then short as many shares as you can afford.
David Thewlis's next film is Red 2, an action-film sequel currently trading at $57.59, thus making him an unlikely target for a short order. When one considers that the next film to fall out of TAG range is Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1, shorting DTHEW becomes a no brainer.
DTHEW is currently trading at $117.10 over a TAG of $116,871,427. Even if Red 2 somehow made more than $250 million, more than 2.5 times what the original Red made, DTHEW would still fall to $116.87, meaning a gain of $0.23 per share on a short, just a fraction of one percent and not worth the commission fee. But if Red 2 falls short of $250 million, which it will almost certainly do, shorting DTHEW becomes much more attractive. For example, if Red 2 repeated the $90,356,857 gross of its predecessor, DTHEW would fall $31.93 per share (27.3%). Even if Red 2 doubles its predecessor's gross, DTHEW would still fall approximately $13.86 per share (11.8%).
DTHEW is made even more attractive when one considers that the next film to fall out of TAG range after Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 is Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2. It's not yet known which will be the next film starring David Thewlis, but since Deathy Hallows 2 made over the maximum TAG adjust of $250 million, DTHEW is guaranteed not to gain in price, no matter how successful the next film. And since it is unlikely that any film will gross at least $250 million, DTHEW should fall even further.
If you have stock in DTHEW, sell it. Then short as many shares as you can afford.
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