Friday, October 19, 2012

10/19/2012 Picks

Chris Messina - CMESS

Chris Messina has had a full dance card lately, with six films released in 2012 and his work on HBO's The Newsroom.  Busy actors are the best f or HSX investing, especially those who make both large and small films, creating big fluctuations in TAG value.

CMESS is currently trading at $2.04 over a TAG of $1,189,702.  Next Tuesday (October 23rd), CMESS will adjust for Celeste and Jesse Forever, which grossed $3,077,622.  This will knock Monogamy and its $20,202 out of TAG range, which will adjust CMESS to $1.80.

So why is CMESS a must-buy if the stock will drop from $2.04 to $1.80 next Tuesday?  Yes, it is a loss of 24 cents (though this can be eliminated by placing a limit order), but CMESS will almost immediately take a big jump.  The next film to enter TAG range for CMESS is Argo, which has already grossed $26,568,000, and the next film leaving TAG range is Like Crazy, which grossed $3,388,210.  This means that CMESS will jump a guaranteed $4.64, pushing the stock to $6.44, more than three times the stock's current value.

This stock is even more attractive since Argo will likely gross quite a bit more money based on strong reviews and positive audience response.  CMESS could easily climb somewhere in the range of $5-10 beyond the guaranteed $4.64, making this an easy gain that will pay off in less than a month.

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